Presented by the Academy Division, National Institute of Corrections
What will our world be like in 5 years? 15? 25? What will the future bring in our corrections settings? A shrinking or growing inmate population? Water shortages that impact operations? Increasing or decreasing government budgets? Increased demand for a specialized workforce in corrections? An increase or decrease in the general population of the U.S. from which to draw staff members? “Forward thinking” refers to a process/set of processes that includes monitoring issues that are important to an agency’s success; analyzing the trends these issues are taking; and developing possible scenarios based on such analysis In this interactive workshop, participants will experience “forward thinking” or
futuring processes applied to our correctional settings. This enables agencies to create a roadmap to their most desirable future. Although the future cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, adoption of futuring processes will place organizations in the best position to ensure their success.
Speaker: Leslie S. LeMaster, Correctional Program Specialist, Academy Division Technical Assistance Manager, National Institute of Corrections, Academy Division, Aurora, Colorado
Sharing what Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) and the National Institute of Corrections (NIC) are doing to put together resources for us to use in terms of forward thinking and implementing them in our agencies. We started looking at forward thinking work at NIC in 2006 and had first set of resources rolled out in 2007. Getting ready to role out our first e-course next month.
Forward thinking is not reacting. It is acting ahead to deal with situations.
Session Objectives:
- Introduce concept of forward thinking in corrections settings
- Demonstrate some initial ideas on how to implement forward thinking processes in your organization.
- Share how BOP has implemented its own Forward Thinking Initiative, and its expected outcomes.
Many Forward Thinking Courses available, and more will be available soon.
What is Forward Thinking?
What images, ideas or thoughts come to mind?
Audience input: planning ahead, seeing problems before they become problems, something that is predictive and prescriptive – what is the future going to be and will we be ready for it?
Highly recommended good book to get you started: “Art of the Long View” by Peter Schwartz. Wonderful information and looks back to WWII and how we did forward thinking even back then. Book contains examples of companies that predicted future events and prepared for them.
NIC has examples on their website also.
Misconceptions about forward thinking:
It is not science fiction or predicting the future.
Forward thinking is not an exact prediction of the future, but what might happen in the future. FT can help you look at the many possible futures – from most desirable to least desirable.
FT is a roadmap to help us determine our desirable future(s).
Steps to FT processes:
Monitoring
Analyzing trends out there and how they might impact us and our business, and looking through trends to see how they fit into developed scenarios.
What is “forward thinking” as a concept into practice?
- Overarching set of processes – happens over time. Deliberate and focused, and must be supported. Must become a lens on everything you do.
- Monitoring issues
- Analyzing trends issues are taking as time moves forward
- Developing and acting on possible scenarios based on analyses
What has BOP done? Projected outcome
“A strategy that plays a significant role in ensuring the BOP’s readiness to adapt to external factors and meet internal and external demands.” FT Forum Remarks, Sept 2007, Harley Lappin, Director, Fed BOP.
Fed BOP Workgroup Expectations:
Included people from all levels including “young talent” that didn’t think the same old way everyone else did. Empowered people to have tough conversations to even look at the sacred cows. Developed 14 work groups to look at everything.
Sept-07: 14 workgroups formed
Primary exploratory teams in 14 content areas formed
Half of teams trained in FTP at that time; then they train the other half of their team
BOP is here in their workgroups (Phase 1 and 2)
Each workgroup will apply FTP to their assigned content area
Reporting findings, research, trend analysis, and scenario development on assigned area; forward to FT Review Team. Workgroups have gone beyond just corrections based research; they are looking at resources outside the boundaries of corrections for information.
Each team funnels info back into the greater BOP FTP process for dissemination and analysis.
BOP using technology that allows them to have meetings without having to be face-to-face. Very successful for them. Even in light of current budget situation, they are still investing in this process.
FTP – 3 phases:
- Issue identification/Validation
- Trend Analysis
- Scenario Development
Phase I: Issue Identification
BOP continually works on this. Now on 2nd round of issue identification. Using “STEEP”, a strategic business analysis model:
- Social
- Technological
- Economic
- Environmental
- Political
BOP looked at issues including environmental issues, social impacts, technological impacts, and economic impact. Many different strategic frameworks can be used. Search Internet for other frameworks.
Group Exercise
Let’s Try It Out!
Step 1 – Issue Identification
Brainstorm – globally
Groups will identify issues related to their core topic (STEEP)
What will trends be for our area in 25 years (the year 2034)?
Individually – 5 minutes
One idea per green card
Tape to wall – Then we’ll share!
[Audience members obtained green cards and markers to use for this exercise.]
Core topic for the exercise is the ECONOMY. Audience members wrote their ideas on the cards and then taped them to the wall.]
Audience gathered around the cards posted on the wall.
Speaker: We are using a modified story boarding technique. One of the main principles of story boarding is that you just start globally – think big. For today’s exercise, I narrowed it down just to give us a look at how it works.
Ideas from audience cards:
Rise in youth crime
Recruitment
Lack of education and funding for education
Peer inmate education programs
Increase in compassionate release
Lack of funding because infrastructure is aging
Increase in incarceration rates
Lack of donations to faith-based groups may reduce programs
Lack of money to support social work
Alternative electric sources
Increased involvement in local detention areas
Upkeep, maintenance of facilities
Migration of populations to cities
Bilingual
Alternative fuel sources
Universal economy
More technical resources
Homelessness increasing
Crime up
Funding for programs
Renewable energy
World wide fuel shortages
World wide food shortages
Pension/benefits changes
China – the new auto industry
Jobs for all in alternative energy
Work at home
More public transportation
Zero budgeting
Workforce reduction
Less dependence on credit
Recycling
Expand knowledge in leadership
More ideas were put on cards
Some ideas seem to belong together. Interesting that we do a wide-open brainstorming, but we still come up with some trend areas. Part of trusting the process.
Step 2 – Clustering
Looking at what things fit together (from the brainstorming/story boarding cards). You don’t get rid of any cards. You just start placing them together in groups that seem to fit together.
[Audience members turned loose to start grouping cards together.]
Speaker: Located clusters on the wall and outliers (lone wolf cards).
Step 3 – Issue Identification – Trend Statements
Draft trend statements from clustered ideas (we’ll research these).
Solid statements have a direction: “More/less…” “Increase/decrease…” For example, If there is more/less of this, there will be more/less of this.
Class Exercise continues:
Green cards put into Cluster Areas, which are then used in this class exercise: Fuel, Technology, Home-based issues, Infrastructure, world economy, education, funding issues.
Class divided into small groups and each group assigned a cluster area to draft trend statements.
Cluster groups reported out.
BOP had interesting discussions about telecommuting, and they are moving forward with it. Changed attitude from “we can’t do it,” to “how do we do it?”
Getting Ready for Intercession Work
- BOP would have done the trend statements via video conferencing over several sessions.
- Research draft trend statements.
- Share with others via email.
- Sources: Internet, books, periodicals, journals, contacts with academia, public/private organizations, etc.
Assists with issue impact
When they end one session, they always schedule the next one and make assignments.
Resources:
Coming soon to NIC’s e-learning course – Thinking our Way Forward to Organizational Evolution – 2-hour seat time.
Blogged by Dr. Cindy Boyles, Administrator of Training and Staff Development, Orange County (FL) Corrections Department